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March 25, 2005
French fried?
In ominous news for Eurofederalists, it seems the French are increasingly wary about the proposed EU constitution. Chirac, in somewhat of a bold move, has scheduled a referendum on the document for May 29. Each EU member must ratify the constitution, but the method of ratification is not specified. The Lithuanians and Slovenians have already cleanly ratified the document in their respective parliaments, but the Spanish took the flashier and riskier referendum course, which was ultimately successful. Blair has already caused a stir by pledging to hold a referendum in the United Kingdom on the constitution, one whose prospects for success are very far from certain. The BBC sums up the continent-wide ratification picture very nicely.
But the French? They are arch-Europeans, federalists to the core, aspiring to see the EU as a "counterweight" to the United States in world affairs. How could they be skeptical of a document that codifies the European experiment to an unprecedented degree? Actually, it's not the first time they've been skittish -- the French just barely voted in favor of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. Indeed, the current document -- in classic constitutional fashion -- is the epitome of a compromise, satisfying neither Eurofederalists nor Euroskeptics completely and offending them both equally. It is lengthy, dense, and imperfect -- much of European public opinion about the document is based not on an actual familiary with the constitution, but on distillations and interpretations provided by lobbyists for and against ratification. In effect, one could interpret the sheer complexity of the constitution as a reason for taking the parliamentary road to ratification. Perhaps only professional politicians have the time and experience to make a rational judgement, representing (of course) the will of the people in the process?
Of course not. The constitution's very length and inaccessiblity are key criteria in assessing it. The public debate on its ratifiation -- in each country that intends to hold referenda -- will be long, messy, and healthy. To be sure, if the French reject the constitution, its fate will be all but sealed, and the EU will find itself tested as never before. But again, perhaps such a test would be healthy. The EU suffers from an acute democratic deficit. Its institutions are seen as distant and ineffectual, and most Europeans feel a much stronger national identity than a continental one. But who would love most to see a French rejection? Tony Blair, of course, who has staked much on pulling a reluctant Britain closer to the EU. The significance of Britain's referendum next year rests squarely on what the French do. He will go to bed on May 29 in one of two moods. If the French ratify the constitution, he'll have a headache. If they don't, he'll have a party.
Posted by Daniel Widome at 06:11 PM to Europe
