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March 24, 2005
Rifles and words
Rumsfeld on Chavez (yesterday):
"I can't imagine why Venezuela needs 100,000 AK-47s, I can't imagine what is going to happen to 100,000 AK-47s," Mr Rumsfeld said before meeting Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. "I personally hope the [delivery] doesn't happen...if it did, it wouldn't be good for the hemisphere.”
Chavez on Bush (earlier this month):
"We have enough evidence ... If anything happens to me, the person responsible will be the president of the United States," Chavez told reporters [...] On Friday, Chavez said his country would not stop supplying oil to the United States unless "the U.S. government gets a little bit crazy and tries to hurt us".
Chavez supporters to no one, or everyone, in particular (last week):
Chanting "fatherland or death," dozens of President Hugo Chávez's supporters lined up in formation, vowing to defend the country if the United States tries to invade. [...] "If an invasion comes, we know what we're going to do," said Manuel Mayan, 36, saluting during training in a parking lot Tuesday night, the first attended by international journalists.
So what's going on here? Is the United States going to depose Chavez? Probably not. Not only do many insist that the Bush administration has already tried and failed to do just that, but Chavez has manipulated the media dynamic perfectly to ensure his survival. He has instituted restrictive codes on private, opposition media outlets, but more importantly, he has called Bush at his own game. By accusing Bush clearly and unequivocally of trying to knock him off, he will seem like a prophet if it comes to pass. And despite the harsh words, the Bush administration remains strategically stymied in its attempts to vilify Chavez. In the meantime, the supposed threat from Bush serves as a rallying cry for Chavez supporters and as a strong reason for Chavez to keep his new AK-47s close to home.
Is Chavez fomenting revolution? Actually, he is -- by his own admission, he seeks to spread his "Bolivarian Revolution" across Latin America. But will he impose his revolution violently? Doubtful. Leftist governments have proliferated across South America in recent months, with little to no bloodshed in each case. The largest ongoing, leftist insurgency in Latin America is in Columbia, a fact which, incidentally, has been used as a rationale for Venezuela's recent arms purchases. But FARC, to take a popular example, has been unsuccessful in seizing power in Colombia, despute decades of fighting. So while Chavez's role in the recent rise of leftist governments may be unclear, he has, at the very least, taken credit for inspiring them, and they have proven more successful and less bloody than some of the more popularized leftist movements in Latin America. That the various leftists have taken power successfully -- and peacefully, by and large -- can be viewed as a victory for Chavez. It can also be viewed as an affirmation that Chavez doesn't need to export violence (or AK-47s) to achieve his revolutionary objectives.
So is this war between Bush and Chavez confined to rhetoric? Yes, but just barely. Feelings run very high both for and against Chavez, in much the same way as they do for Bush. But for now, the war of words helps both leaders. For Chavez, it bolsters his bunker mindset, pitting him against the forces of rapacious imperilaism, and it helps justify his rule and his excesses. For Bush, it reinforces the perception that the United States faces foreign foes and needs to adjust its energy and military policies accordingly. Throughout this rhetorical war, furthermore, Venezuela continues to sell oil to the United States, in a fair exchange of money for energy, clearly benefiting both countries. For their conflict to escalate any further, something would have to upset this current, seemingly tenuous, but actually quite stable balance between Bush and Chavez -- one of the two leaders would have to take their conflict beyong words. Right now, such an escalation would be in neither Bush nor Chavez's interest. But Chavez has a record of winning waiting games, outlasting opponents from his unsuccessful first coup in 1992 to the abortive coup against him ten years later. At the current rate, then, odds are that Chavez will win his latest waiting game, this time against the Texas Yanqui up north.
UPDATE: Edited to reflect suggestions in the comments.
Posted by Daniel Widome at 10:39 PM to Americas,
