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March 22, 2005
Wise wavering
I saw in the FT and the Washington Post today that the EU appears to be wavering in its earlier consensus to lift its arms embargo on China. This is a welcome development on several levels.
First, just on the merits of the news, one has to be pleased by the EU's recent hesitation. As firm a believer as I am in free trade, certain commodities -- such as arms -- are better left uncommon, untraded, and unused. Furthermore, China has shown itself willing and able to boost its military expenditures even without overt European assistance. And despite its torrid economic growth, the People's Republic remains a repressive and authoritarian state, wholly unworthy of being rewarded with additional access to modern weaponry. Indeed, the EU's wavering can largely be attributed to the anti-secession bill recently rubber-stamped by China's National People's Congress and targeted explicitly at Taiwan. This bill, suffice to say, does not inspire confidence in China's ostensibly peaceful intentions.
Second, and important in a broader European context, the FT and Washington Post articles both mention that resistance to lifting the embargo is coming from Britain and Germany, with France holding out. It seems Chirac is still holding on to the notion that the EU can represent a "counterweight" to the United States in world affairs and that building stronger ties to China is a means to accomplish this. While on some matters, such as trade and immigration, the EU can act effectively as a single entity, the prospects for any kind of a more developed EU global footprint (the CFSP notwithstanding) are slim to none. The French position not only represents a futile goal, then, but it is also indicative of an old-think, twentieth century system of pole-based geopolitics. While the United States might possess overwhelming superiority in the rudiments of state power, recent events have only proven that state power is neither invincible nor infallible. Europe's comparative advantage vis a vis the United States, then, is not in the traditional modes of state power, such as force and raw power, but rather in the more post-modern modes of influence, such as suasion and norm-setting (over-popularized and -simplified as "soft power"). By simply setting an example of stability, democratic governance, and liberal economics -- and without the threat or use of coercive force -- the EU has had a great effect on Central and Eastern European states hoping to meet EU membership criteria on the path to eventual admission. While China clearly is not a prospective EU member, the general strategies and principles used to affect change in Europe can certainly be applied to misbehaving states further afield. So if Chirac aspires for the EU to act as a "counterweight" to the United States, there are ways to do this, as long as he thinks creatively and becomes unbound from a narrow version of history based solely upon classical balance of power notions. In this regard, lifting the arms embargo on China would not be a step in the right direction.
And third, in terms of U.S. policy, the recent EU wavering could signify a welcome success in the Bush administration's diplomatic playbook. Despite the ongoing "war on terror," Bush administration officials hold on to their opinion of China as an emerging strategic competitor to the United States. Such geopolitical geniuses, then, clearly view U.S. national interests as being served by the EU's retention of its arms embargo on China. Bush's recent visit to Europe -- during which he surely gave Blair, Schroeder, and Chirac an earful about the retaining the embargo -- has been matched by firm and extensive diplomatic lobbying. Thus far at least, such lobbying seems not to have been paired with improper accusations or outright deceit. When the Bush team has resorted to such tricks in the past, results have been decidedly mixed. Perhaps this recent turn of events will convince the administration that a little honest diplomacy among friends can actually get the job done.
Posted by Daniel Widome at 11:48 PM to Asia,
