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May 30, 2005
Winners and losers
While he may call for "reflection", there can be no doubt that Tony Blair is thrilled by the results of this weekend's French referendum. In their infinite wisdom or lack thereof (depending on your perspective) and with very high turnout, the French rejected the EU constitution, 56% to 44%. The Dutch are likely to follow the French lead in a few days time, and many Eurocrats are ringing some very dire bells. But Tony? As I've noted here before, a huge weight has now been lifted from his shoulders. His promised British referendum will likely not come to pass, and thus will likely never be defeated soundly, as many have predicted it would be. So don't be fooled by Blair's reticence -- he's a very happy camper.
But what of the EU? The Council will meet on June 16 to debate whether the constitution has a future. But you needn't wait that long, or even longer, to find out what will happen. In some form or another, pieces of the constitution will ultimately be adopted by the EU member states. The method will be one of intergovernmental treaties or agreements, without pesky referenda mucking up the works. What are the pieces most likely to be salvaged? Probably the position of an EU foreign minister, and possibly that of a permanent EU president. Less likely, but still very possible, are the extension of qualified majority voting to more issue domains, an expansion of Parliament's competencies, and reform of the Commission. These are all tricky subjects, but that the member states could agree to them en masse for incorporation into the constitution means a lot. Plus, there will be a lot of pressure to demonstrate some forward movement or progress in the wake of the French referendum. Might take some time, and it won't be easy, but some pieces will be salvaged. That aside, though, the constitution itself is a dead letter.
Frankly, though, I'm bemused by the uproar of surprise and faux shock at this result. The final tally almost precisely matched what polls had been indicating for months. As I have pointed out, we've already known the more important victor in this referendum for some months now. As a matter of fact, we've known the victor from the very day that Chirac announced that he would be putting the constitution before his people. That victor? The EU.
Make no mistake -- the EU is in for some rough weeks, months, and years ahead. But it's not going anywhere. The EU will not vanish overnight, nor will it vanish in several years' time. But the EU was living on borrowed time. The past 15 years have seen an unprecedented deepening of the EU's powers and a broadening of its borders. Popular engagement, where applicable, had been a fudged or close-run affair. For all the good it has done and for all the burucrats it has employed, the EU remains nothing more than a big theory. It needed to face a genuine, honest popular reckoning with reality before it could truly advance. This reckoning was long overdue, and the longer it was put off, the more risky it became. But such a reckoning came on Sunday.
Opponents of the EU and of the constitution seem to revel in its defeat, and so they should. They won a close-fought, honest debate of the issues. But their mere participation in the debate gives the EU a popular legitimacy that it could never bestow upon itself. The French -- and indeed, all Europeans -- have been engaged in a monumental debate over the nature of the EU and over how they themselves can hope to benefit from it. That is a legitimation of the EU, and thus a victory for the institution. The constitution's defeat is but a mere detail -- a serious and problematic one, sure, but far from life-threatening. Likewise, had the French approved the constitution, many Eurocrats would've felt a bullet dodged. But the EU itself would not necessarily have been any better off. The constitution is a flawed compromise document, as the EU itself is a flawed compromise institution. But flawed compromises are the essential lifeblood of any consociational polity -- look at the United States and the United Nations. That their founding documents are imperfect and unpopular among some has in no way diminished the fundamental and profound value of either institution. And so too with the EU.
I have no idea what the next few months and years hold for the EU. But to those who cheer in celebration or cry in defeat, I say only this: settle down. This vote was decided many months ago, and the EU -- as a mere theory in dire need of popular legitimation and a reality check -- was the victor.
Posted by Daniel Widome at 09:09 PM to Europe
