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June 16, 2005
Turkey and the constitution
While ostensibly separate issues, the EU constitution and Turkish accession to the EU have always been inextricably linked. In the recent French referendum, many in the non camp made no secret of their opposition to Turkish membership in the EU, to their opposition to Chirac's support of the same, and to their subsequent vote against the European charter. For Turkey's part, accession talks are set to begin later this year. But will a confidence-shaken EU be eager to set a firm date for such talks? With the constitution dead, will Eurocrats fear whether their existing institutions can accommodate any more members?
The linkages between the two issues, while real, have always been implicit. Turkish accession is not mentioned in the EU constitution, and it has been pursued by successive Turkish governments since long before the constitutional process began. At this week's meeting of the European Council -- the first since the French and Dutch referendums, and thus a rather important meeting -- Chirac used his country's referendum to cast a very ominous shadow on Turkish accession:
President Jacques Chirac of France, speaking as the European Union opened a summit meeting here in an atmosphere of crisis, also threw doubt on the future of European enlargement. Following the constitution’s rejection in France and the Netherlands, he said, the 25-member EU might not be able to cope with more members.
‘‘In this new situation,’’ Chirac asked, ‘‘can the Union continue to expand without the institutions capable of making this expanded Union function efficiently?’’ [emphasis mine]
While several countries are waiting in the membership wings, Chirac clearly is referring to Turkey. As a supporter of Turkish accession, such language from Chirac should be very worrisome to Turkish ears. Perhaps he was genuinely rattled by the non vote. Or perhaps he is just biding his time until the European waters calm a bit. Either way, Chirac's statement marks a shift, and it's probably not far from the Council's own consensus view.
What will the EU do? I don't think they can back away completely from the prospect of Turkish accession -- that hurdle has already been jumped, last year, amid much debate. But interminable delaying or postponing of the accession process has always been an explicit option for the EU. Indeed, it was a vital option whose incorporation was necessary to win the initial, broad European consensus for the setting of a start date for accession talks. It now looks like delay will be the name of the game.
As for the Turks, this is not what they have in mind. They have been waiting in the EU membership wings for decades, and under Erdogan, Turkey has made great strides in recent years in terms of reforming its justice system and in cleaning up human rights issues. The reward for such successes, many Turks feel, should be genuine movement toward EU accession. More delay and more debate, from the Turkish perspective, does not count as "genuine movement."
What does this all mean? To some extent, not all that much. Both the EU and Turkey have made too many commitments, too recently, toward accession that backing out now would be very difficult. But significant delay in the accession process will have a real effect on Turkish public opinion. Would accession really seem so important if the reforms most requested by the EU are met not by action but by delay? For the EU, there is a discomforting (and somewhat irrational) alignment between opposition to the constitution and opposition to Turkish accession. As one sentiment gains greater currency, so too will the other.
For both the EU and Turkey, then, time is working against Turkish accession. I don't think any hard deadlines must be set, nor do I think that the accession process will die if not completed by a certain date. But interminable delay would only serve opponents of Turkish accession, and given the current status of the EU constitution, delay certainly seems to be in the cards. Make no mistake: the clock for Turkish accession has been ticking much faster since the French and Dutch referendums.
Posted by Daniel Widome at 09:44 PM to Europe
