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September 21, 2005
Stating the obvious
A bit late, perhaps, but accurate nonetheless:
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has acknowledged that the EU will not have a constitution for "at least two or three years".
He said that the text was unlikely to be ratified in the near future, after French and Dutch voters rejected it.
However, Mr Barroso said this should not mean paralysis in Europe.
As I've said before, the constitutional referendum process itself was a victory for the EU, regardless of it specific outcome. I would actually be much more pessimistic than Barroso about the near-term prospects for revitalizing a constitution, either the rejected one or an entirely new iteration; my guess is that the EU won't see a "constitution" inside of 10 years, at the very least.
While many Eurocrats and others may bemoan this, they need not fear for the EU itself -- it's not going anywhere. In the broader context of European history, we're still very early in the constitutional shaking-out period. Little remains certain about what will come next. But Barroso is right in suggesting that a period of existential reflection for the EU need not mean an end or a halt to its good work. Much remains to be done in the fields of eastward expansion, subsidy reform, legal coordination, and foreign policy synergy. While the constitution would have made many of these tasks easier to accomplish, the lack of one by no means prevents progress from being made on them. The pace will just be a little slower, a little messier, and a tad more frustrating.
That, if anything, is the message to take away from the French and Dutch referendums. Europeans like their governance democratic, and if that entails a slower, messier, and (hopefully) more responsive EU, then so be it. It's better for everyone that the EU has been forced to this realization now than if it had taken 5, 10, or 15 more years. While those opposed to the EU may be taking solace in the death of the constitution, their glee is necessarily of the short-term variety. In the long memory of history, the 2005 failure of the constitution will prove to be a defining moment for the EU, and a rather positive one, at that.
Posted by Daniel Widome at 04:31 PM to Europe
