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October 18, 2005
Serious condemnation
Predictable feedback from the neighbors over Koizumi's recent trip to Yasukuni. First, from China:
The Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Monday to condemn Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, a place where World War II criminals were honored.
Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing urgently summoned Japanese Ambassador to China Koreshige Anami and seriously read the statement, expressing strong condemnation for Koizumi's visit.
Well, at least the Foreign Minister didn't read the statement casually. Of course, the Koreans aren't to be outdone:
Apparently in response [to Koizumi's visit], Cheong Wa Dae [the office of the ROK president] said Monday it is scrapping a bilateral summit scheduled for the end of the year. Since 2003, the two countries’ leaders have held annual "shuttle summits" in each others’ countries. Koizumi made the trip to Korea in June. There are now calls in the ruling party to stop the summits.
“Until now there had been discussion of the president’s visit to Japan, but as of today, we can no longer say that we are looking into the possibility,” Choeng Wa Dae spokesman Kim Man-soo told reporters. “That means there may be a change in the president's schedule.”
And just to make sure their neighbors got the right message, almost 200 Japanese MPs visited Yasukuni the day after Koizumi did so himself.
I wish I could say something insightful or creative here, but unfortunately, this charade is already so well-worn that I've already said it. I suppose all I can add now is that the Japanese cannot reasonably claim any degree of surprise or separation from their PM's behavior. They have long known Koizumi's stance on (and fondness for) Yasukuni, and while last month's elections may have focused on postal reform, Japan's regional relationships were an important point of electoral contention. The Japanese gave Koizumi a resounding victory, and they knew what they were getting.
In the same vein, Koizumi's most recent trip to Yasukuni could carry greater weight abroad than his previous visits. Following so closely after his election victory, Koizumi's visit and the sentiment it represents can be seen as one and the same as those of the Japanese people. This is no rebellious PM following his own instincts at the expense of popular will; this is a resoundingly popular PM, fresh from a political reaffirmation, doing something he knows will be noticed (and criticized) far and wide.
Say what you will about Koizumi and his Yasukuni visits (and I have -- they're foolish, but so too is the response to them), but he knows exactly what he's doing. It's such brashness that sets Koizumi apart from the stale mold that typically defines Japanese politicians, and which directly contributed to his recent electoral victory. So maybe he just can't help himself.
UPDATE: This Guardian piece contains two interesting tidbits about Koizumi's visit. The first:
In an apparent attempt to placate Japan's Asian neighbours, who regard Yasukuni shrine in Tokyo as a symbol of Japanese militarism, Mr Koizumi wore a business suit rather than ceremonial dress and did not enter the revered inner shrine, choosing instead to pray and make a token monetary offering at the outer shrine.
And:
An unrepentant Mr Koizumi insisted he had paid his respects at Yasukuni as a private citizen and had done so to demonstrate his commitment to peace, not to celebrate Japanese militarism. In a swipe at Beijing and Seoul, he added: "A foreign government should not take issue with the way the Japanese express condolences to the Japanese war dead, as well as to the world's war dead."
Posted by Daniel Widome at 12:22 AM to Asia
October 17, 2005
Electoral license
I suppose when you gamble in calling a snap election, win that election, and then push through a rather bold reform of the postal system, a prime minister is entitled to a little mischief. Nothing too unexpected in Koizumi's latest visit to Yasukuni, I suppose, but I have to say I am disappointed. This is of most interest:
The visit, Koizumi's fifth since taking office in April 2001, will also be highly controversial as it comes just about two weeks after the Osaka High Court ruled his previous visits violated the constitutional separation of religion and state. [emphasis mine]
I hadn't heard about this court decision -- been a bit occupied of late. Hopefully, I'll be able to check it out in greater detail shortly.
Posted by Daniel Widome at 12:32 AM to Asia
October 12, 2005
Northern dimension
I've been meaning to link to a great piece the NY Times ran earlier this week (conveniently permalinked at the IHT) that describes a budding "great game" over the Arctic Ocean and its defrosting attributes:
... [T]he Arctic is undergoing nothing less than a great rush for virgin territory and natural resources worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Even before the polar ice began shrinking more each summer, countries were pushing into the frigid Barents Sea, lured by undersea oil and gas fields and emboldened by advances in technology. But now, as thinning ice stands to simplify construction of drilling rigs, exploration is likely to move even farther north.
Last year, scientists found tantalizing hints of oil in seabed samples just 200 miles from the North Pole. All told, one quarter of the world's undiscovered oil and gas resources lies in the Arctic, according to the United States Geological Survey.
The polar thaw is also starting to unlock other treasures: lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage; new cruise ship destinations; and important commercial fisheries.
"It's the positive side of global warming, if there is a positive side," said Ron Lemieux, the transportation minister of Manitoba, whose provincial government is investing millions in Churchill. [emphasis mine]
Regular readers will be little surprised by any of this, though admittedly, it remains to be seen how much of the Arctic's promise will be borne out. Of course, the irony here is rich -- would the benefits of an Arctic thaw outweigh the other, most likely harmful consequences of global warming? I don't think we should rush to speed up the heat wave just to help our northern neighbors. At least not yet.
A couple of years ago, I attended a lecture by the Icelandic President, if for no other reason than that he was the Icelandic President. I remember he strived mightily to make the case for a "northern dimension" in international politics. It was a quaint argument, in a Scandinavian sort of way, but also a rather silly one. With temperatures rising and the ice cap melting, though, such a "northern dimension" might actually become relevant. Wily Nordics, they are.
Posted by Daniel Widome at 07:11 PM to Trans-geographical
October 04, 2005
Close call
It appears that the EU and Turkey have stopped just short of the precipice:
After two days of dramatic negotiations, European foreign ministers agreed on terms for talks to start, overcoming Austria's insistence that the EU offer Turkey the possibility of a status less than full membership. By evening, after hours of discussion with Ankara, Turkey agreed to the framework proffered for what are expected to be tough talks over the next decade.
"Agreement has now been reached that negotiations on Turkey's accession to the European Union can and will begin in the very near future," said Jack Straw, the British foreign secretary, who was leading the talks.
Note also the reassuring role played by Condi Rice. Say what you will about the Bush administration, they've always been on the right side of Turkish accession to the EU.
While overcoming Austrian intransigence and initiating the talks are big steps, expect drama similar to this for the next 10-15 years -- Turkey's road to the EU will be paved with bricks of frustration and indigestion.
UPDATE: The negotiating framework itself, courtesy of the BBC. The money quote:
The shared objective of the negotiations is accession. These negotiations are an open-ended process, the outcome of which cannot be guaranteed beforehand.
Posted by Daniel Widome at 03:07 AM to Europe
October 02, 2005
Not a privilege
It looks like Turkey's EU accession odyssey has reached an impasse, courtesy of Austria:
European Union foreign ministers have failed to end the stalemate over Turkey's bid to join the bloc.
Late-night talks in Luxembourg ended without agreement on a negotiating framework to open talks with Turkey, which were due to begin on Monday.
Austria wants the EU to consider giving Turkey "favoured nation" status, but holding off from full membership.
The IHT has a good piece looking at the genuine antipathy Austrians feel toward Turkish accession. On that level, one can't really fault the Austrian government's position -- it's representing the legitimate will of its people.
Erdogan, however is not happy, and justifiably so. Turkish accession has been decades in the making, and for it to be held up after so much recent progress over something like "favoured nation" status or "privileged partnership" is perhaps a monumental mistake on the EU's part. The Turkish PM has long noted that the recent legal and human rights reforms he's pushed through parliament are worthy in their own right, and not simply as a sop to EU demands. To be sure, even if the accession falls flat on its face, the reforms already enacted -- and those that we could trust Erdogan to continue to pursue -- would mark a success of EU foreign policy.
But if matters came to that, the ultimate harm -- in Europe, Turkey, and the world over -- would dwarf any good in Turkey alone. Harmful stereotypes of the EU as a Christian-only club would be confirmed, Turkish moderates would lose much of their rationale for recent reform, and the case that the West and Islam are incompatible would be much strengthened. The precise consequences of a collapse of the accession process beyond that are hard to predict, but imagining any good coming from it would be even harder.
As it is, the accessions negotiations would take no less than 10-15 years, giving plenty of time for hesitant countries such as Austria to reconcile their legitimate concerns with reality. More importantly, it enables today's politicians to pass the buck to tomorrow's. And to be sure, Austria is not alone in its wariness to Turkish entry. But to pitch "privileged partnership" today represents a blatant rebuff of Turkish good intentions that stretch back decades. It's hard to fathom how the Austrian government could even imagine that the option would be palatable to a politician as stubborn as Erdogan and a people as proud as the Turks.
There will likely be much movement on this front in the coming hours and days. Very possibly, a temporary solution will be reached that pleases no one but, more importantly, offends no one, either. But the language emanating from the Turkish government has been increasing definitive in recent months, and justifiably so. "Privileged partnership" may well represent the last straw.
