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June 08, 2005
Two Revolutions
There are two revolutions going on right now in two very different countries.
In Bolivia, weeks of street protests have finally brought the resignation of the Bolivian president. The protestors demand the nationalization of the country's gas industry in order, as they see it, to return the profits to the people and prevent them from going to foreigners.
In Zimbabwe, it is the President who is forcing his will on the people. Robert Mugabe has cracked down on what he calls "illegal settlements"--the vast, informal shantytowns that have sprung up around the capital and other cities.
Both countries face a choice: harness the world economy and develop the country, or pursue "virtuous" isolation and poverty.
For Bolivia, the nationalization of the gas industry would be a disaster. The country desperately needs foreign direct investment to prosper. Without it, the Bolivian gas industry, like Mexico's oil industry, will not have the resources to develop its reserves, and will eventually be unable to meet the government's financial demands. In the short term peasants, students and protestors may be gratified by the results. But without the sunshine of foreign investment, foreign accountants and foreign full-disclosure regulations, the industry will likely become the corrupt fifedom of government, a means to nepotism and graft rather than fuller employment and a rising standard of living.
But Bolivia's protestors are not just steeped in outdated agitprop. They have other greivances as well: they hail from the western, highland parts of the country. Many have indigenous backgrounds and feel left out not just from the natural resources boom but also the country's politics. The protestors feel economically and political disenfranchized from the Bolivian center; the irony is, their success will worsen their economic position.
Zimbabwe, manwhile, is teetering on famine. President Mugabe has recently allowed foreign food aid into the country, but this does nothing to stop the longterm decline of the Zimbabwean economy. It was once the breadbasket of Africa, now its poor and hungry are evicted from shantytowns by the hundreds of thousands and left homeless by their own government. Seven in ten are out of work. Farms lie fallow. Outside scrutiny and pressure--largely from Britain--has had little effect. Still, a new group, the Broad Alliance, is planning large-scale strikes later this week.
Perhaps the people of Zimbabwe will have the strength and courage to overthrow their government. And perhaps the people of Bolivia will chose to join the world economy.
But the great tragedy is that they may not. And if the people of Bolivia and the government of Zimbabwe chose to be left behind, we must let them. We save our investments for countries that promise a goods return, and we should save further loans, grants or debt relief for governments that will make good use of them.
The saddest truth about foreign policy is realizing that the solutions to most of the world's problems are in other people's hands.
Posted by James Fichter at June 8, 2005 10:26 AM
