« Iraq Study Group report | Main | Google Earth used to target British bases in Basra »
January 12, 2007
Bush in a hole in Iraq, digging
As I'm sure you've heard, the US is increasing troop numbers in Iraq; the hope is improve 'security' for Iraqis (in Baghdad in particular), to take military action against anti-occupation insurgent groups, and to take military action against Iranian and Syrian influence in Iraq. Bush hopes to achieve this with about 20,000 extra troops.
There's a number of problems with this, lots of which have been (correctly) repeatedly raised elsewhere: the troops serving as targets for insurgents, the inadequate troop numbers for Bush's goals, and problems with 'reinforcing failure'. I'll write about one issue which hasn't got so much attention: dealing with the Iranian influence in Iraq.
Firstly, a military response won't do anything much about cultural and political links between Iraqi and Iranian Shia (except perhaps strengthen them, through a sense of solidarity). The number of troops being sent in also won't be able to do much about Iraq's porous borders (which have now become sufficiently open that Iraq may be becoming a staging post on a new drugs route).
The major problem, though, is how on earth 20,000 extra troops can deal with the stronger Iranian-linked groups. Taking 'just' the Iranian-linked Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, this has a large (c. 10,000 troops) in a relatively effective militia, which would be extremely hard to deal with in assymetrical warfare. It is also part of the Iraqi government - so, as well as having the SCIRI having a lot of popular support, the SCIRI would be hard to separate from the Iraqi state/government. The links between Iraqi security/military forces and Shia militias means that it is unclear to what extent these will support or oppose US-lead forces.
Anyway, this also has interesting links to UK policy, and our horribly ineffective attempts to influence US policy in Iraq. That's enough for me to write for now, though - I'll add more in another post.
Posted by jon_mendel at January 12, 2007 05:01 PM
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.watsonblogs.org/cgi-bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/610
Comments
woohoo, with Latin America gone into the hands of Chav and Fido, the drug supply must've been running low low!
Posted by: Justinho at January 13, 2007 05:46 PM
Not to worry - with the boom in Afghan opium production after the removal of the Taliban regime, there'll be plentiful supply of (at least some types of) drugs for a good while yet. One explanation for the moves towards a new drugs route through Iraq is that there's a need for more ways to distribute the products of the Afghan opium industry.
Who says war can't lead to economic growth, and increased production and trade.
Posted by: Jon Mendel at January 18, 2007 10:58 PM
