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July 03, 2007
Elections Background
As promised, this entry will deal with the hottest topic in Turkish politics right now, the July 22nd parliamentary elections. These elections were originally supposed to be held in the fall, but because the Grand National Assembly (GNA) failed to elect a president in April, Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister and leader of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), called for early elections.
The current president’s term was due to expire on May 16th, so the 11th president was supposed to be determined before President Ahmet Necdet Sezer left office on this date. Under the Turkish parliamentary system, the president is elected by the parliament and is largely a symbolic figurehead. Historically, the president has represented the secular nature of the Turkish Republic.
Because the parliament is currently controlled by the AK Party, which has Islamic roots, many secularists are concerned about the presidency losing its secular nature. Although the AK Party claims to support the principle of secularism and has pursued moderate policies aimed at securing Turkey’s bid to the European Union, many people are skeptical about the party’s assertions holding true in the future. The AK Party currently controls 352 of the Grand National Assembly’s 550 seats, with the next closest party (the Republic People’s Party, or CHP) controlling 149 seats.
After speculation that Erdogan himself would run generated a strongly negative reaction, the AK Party nominated current Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as their candidate. In the first round of voting on April 27, Gul received 357 votes, with 361 members of the parliament present. Members of the CHP and other parties boycotted the vote and the AK Party came 10 votes short of the necessary two-thirds majority (367) to elect Gul.
On the same day, the Turkish Armed Forces issued a statement of its interests on its website. Turkey’s military is considered the guardian of Kemalism (the ideology of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of Turkey) and the staunch defender of secularism. It was responsible for coup d’etats in 1960, 1971, and 1980 and most recently Islamic-oriented Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan left office in 1997 after a so-called “post-modern” or “soft” coup wherein the military made repeated strong statements against the government and rolled tanks through a neighborhood in the capital, Ankara. The military’s recent e-posted comments included the following statement and other indications that the army might step in if secularism was challenged. "It should not be forgotten that the Turkish armed forces are a side in this debate and are a staunch defender of secularism". Europe and the United States have cautioned against military involvement in the election process and thus far, aside from their initial statement, the military has been quiet.
Before the second round of voting could begin, the CHP filed a claim to the Supreme Court, seeking annul the first vote on the grounds that if two-thirds of the votes were needed to elect the president, two-thirds of the parliament needed to be present for a quorum to be called. On May 1 the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the CHP and annulled the first round of voting. When the AK Party failed to reach a quorum again on May 6, Gul withdrew his candidacy. Three days later Erdogan called for early elections. Interestingly, as I found out today during our daily press briefing, the CHP are not the first ones to use the ambiguity in the constitution’s wording regarding the quorum. In an interview today Erbakan acknowledged that he brought up the same issue in 1969 and so although he is more aligned with the AK Party than with the CHP, he supports the ruling of the Constitutional Court. Turkish politics are never as simple as they might seem…
Throughout the political maneuvering popular protests have been erupting, particularly in western Turkey, in the name of secularism. Enormous rallies were held in many cities, including Ankara, Istanbul, Canakkale, and Izmir. In Izmir, a historically secular city on the Aegean, as many as 1.5 million people were thought to have participated in the demonstration. A quick search on “Google Image” shows hundreds of pictures of the protests and the overwhelming nature of the demonstrations. 
Many of the protesters expressed concerns about increasing Islamic influence in Turkey. One of the symbols invoked as evidence of the AK Party’s Islamic agenda is that of Gul’s wife wearing an Islamic headscarf. The headscarf is currently banned in governmental buildings and educational institutions and so the first lady’s choice to wear one and reside in Cankaya, the presidential residence and bastion of secularism, would be disquieting to secular Turks.
In the upcoming weeks AK Party, the CHP, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP, a rightwing nationalist party) and other parties will be campaigning across the country. These three parties are considered likely to pass the threshold (meaning that they will get at least 10% of the votes) and will therefore be able to hold seats in the Grand National Assembly. Other parties such as the Genc Party (Young Party) and Democratic Party (DP) will likely have to form coalitions in order to get representation in the GNA.
Turks have expressed serious reservations about the elections—they really feel uncertain about the results. I hope I’ve managed to convey some of the excitement and tension in the air here. I’m looking forward to the next few weeks and feel very lucky to be in Turkey at such a pivotal time for Turkish politics.
More next week and I promise it won’t be so technical!
(Sources include: “Army ‘Concerned’ by Turkey Vote,” BBC News, "Turks Rally Against Pro-Islamic Leaders,” The Washington Post, May 13, 2007, Google Image Search )
Posted by Jill Luxenberg at July 3, 2007 01:49 AM
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