Justification of Rankings - Nick Greenfield

In performing my threat analysis, I tried to constrain myself in a few ways which I thought might enhance an outsider’s ability to compare my rankings. I performed my ranking horizontally rather than vertically; an action that I hope will emphasize the relative danger of various threats within each paradigm. I find this preferable to a horizontal ranking, because it allows me to rank (1 through 8) the dangers to a specific category, and then compare the gravest threats by paradigm (the horizontal approach, it seems to me, requires a somewhat arbitrary assignment of values as the number of values (8) exceeds the number of categories (5)). By forcing each threat into a hierarchy, I hope not to express one’s supreme importance, but rather to facilitate easy comparison.
In the following short space I have chosen to justify what I view as a few of my most important rankings. For human security, I chose to rank infowar as the 7th threat. This is not because I do not understand the importance of altered perceptions, but rather because I believe that these altered perceptions do not affect “objective” human security, but rather an individual’s conception of security. I also ranked infowar low (8) for state security, as I believe that states are relatively able to isolate themselves from external information warfare and harness it for their own positive benefit, as North Korea has done effectively with its citizens. Infowar is, however, a grave threat to network security. Cyberterrorism and other destructive acts can disrupt networks at their vulnerable nodes, while positive acts (like the creation of propaganda) can corrupt informational flows.
My threat ranking in the system column reflects my beliefs about the thinks most likely to rupture status quo international politics. I view WMD as most capable of this in their destructive ability, followed by terrorism and the environment for their ability to foster a more multilateral cooperative atmosphere amongst states. For the global rankings I rated what I view as existential threats (WMD and the environment) highest, followed by events that I believe might embroil a significant portion of the world in violence and instability (resource conflict, disease, and war).

Posted by Nick Greenfield on October 1, 2006 11:45 AM | Permalink

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