Explanation of my RankingI just completed my ranking of the international threats. As I can’t justify myself for each one, I chose to explain three of them. The three examples I chose are: the impact of pandemics on humans, the impact of terrorism on the system and the impact of WMDs on a global scale. I did not choose to examine those three rankings because I consider that they are the biggest threats but rather because my ranking is higher than the class’s average and I think that it is interesting to justify my decision. I consider that pandemics are one of the most important threats for humans nowadays, especially considering the impact of AIDS in the world. My argument is mainly based on a study made by UNAIDS in 2005: Secondly, in my matrix grid, I gave a quite high ranking to the terrorism threat on the international system. As much as terrorism can threaten humans and states, I think that it is mostly disruptive for the system. Indeed, terrorism clearly undermines the state system by giving it a fugitive adversary. Terrorism directly challenges the authority of the state and reconfigures the shape of the international society as terrorists become a new type a combatant. I consider that it is a threat to the current international system because terrorism blurs the limit between soldiers and criminals. The controversy over Guantanamo Bay prison and whether or not the presumed terrorists imprisoned there should be protected by the Geneva Conventions of 1949 as prisoners of war is a good example. I think that the attacks on 09/11/2001 not only hit the United States as a country but also had an impact on the whole international society. It had consequences on the international society because it was the beginning of what it called a new type of terrorism bringing about a great deal of casualties but also because of the reaction of the states after the initial attack. Although the United Nations, as early as September 12th 2001, stated that the United States had a right to retaliate after the terrorist attacks and though the war in Afghanistan was authorized by the UN Security Council and encompassed an international coalition; the American “war on terror” caused a lot of controversies between countries, especially when the US took the decision to invade Iraq. The war in Iraq was illegal in the sense that it was not backed up by the Security Council. So terrorism modifies the international society directly by challenging the system of states and indirectly, through the way states respond to this new threat. Finally, I consider that weapons of mass destruction are a very important threat on a global level. I do not think that WMDs are the most important threat facing the world today and I gave environment and resource conflict a higher ranking but I consider that those two threats are almost self-explanatory and do not need as much clarification. During the cold war, any student would have put WMDs as the most critical threat facing the earth. But, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, it seemed that the threat of a nuclear apocalypse was fading away. I partially agree with this statement. Indeed, I think that the prospect of a nuclear war between two countries is quite modest. However, I do not think that WMDs do not represent any threat anymore. I think that the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, especially to terrorist groups is still an important threat nowadays. Indeed, the research of the French analyst, Bruno Tertrais (see for example http://www.eusec.org/tertrais.htm or http://aei.pitt.edu/1607/) shows that proliferation of WMDs is a serious threat in the world. The Non Proliferation Treaty (from 1968) on which the whole system of non proliferation of nuclear weapons is based, is clearly in crisis especially since it could not prevent North Korea or Iran from developing nuclear facilities (or even detect their programs). Moreover, networks such as the Doctor Khan’s network reveal an important breach in the regulation of WMDs. Considered as the father of the Pakistani nuclear weapon; A. Q. Khan provided nuclear technology and information to different countries, including North Korea and Iran. The biggest threat associated with WMDs is certainly terrorism. Without even considering the possibility of a transfer of technology to a terrorist group, the threat of seeing a terrorist organization launching a massive biological or chemical attack is high and could have very important consequences on the world. Posted by Emeline Lemoine on October 1, 2006 12:00 AM | Permalink « Critique of Global Security Matrix | Main | Christopher Keys -- Critique of Manifesto, Explanation of Extremes » |
