Ranking Explanation

My threat ranking focused on the ever exacerbated problem of resource conflict and failed states to the stability of the international system. I do not see pandemics and environmental degredation as posing a threat to system survival and continued expansion anywhere comporable to the competition of actors over natural gas, oil, metals, timber, and other necessary goods that fuel the global economy.

A pandemic, while devastating when it strikes, is a spontaneous event and periodic in its devastation. The Bubonic Plague, which cose Europe one quarter of its population between 1347-48, was a consequence of overcrowding, almost non-existent sanitation standards, and horrific urban management. Nevertheless, the impact of the plague did not see Europe fundamentally shift its political and economic foundations (with the possible exception of reduced Church attendance and increased banditry). Westphalia would take place more than three centuries later. In fact, it is during periods of modern pandemics or threats from them (e.g AIDS, SARS, of the Avian Flu) that states strengthen pre-existing levels of cooperation and the international system becomes less exposed to critical danger. In my estimation, therefore, pandemics pose little true danger to states, systems, or networks. Their periodic occurence reduces them as a sustained global threat.

Failed states and resource conflicts are, however, lethal and continuous threats to the international system that cannot be underestimated. Increased competition and the desire for strategic advantage has led to higher rates of intrastate rivalry (Sierra Leone for the diamond trade, Somalia for basic food stuffs, Cote D'Ivoire for ivory, and Middle Eastern oil). These resource conflicts have led to fundamental adjustments of foreign policy. Putin is eyeing for a possible military reaction to Iranian moves in the hopes of driving up oil prices for his national reserves. The Chinese import close to 1/4 of their crude from Iran, and had previously invested heavily in Saddam Hussein's regime. Bolivia's new president, Evo Morales, has argued for increased coca leaf production and nationalized his state's natural gas facilities, leading to ire from Washington.

Posted by Boris Ryvkin on October 1, 2006 03:16 PM | Permalink

« A Critique on the Global Security Manifesto | Main | Rankings of Matrix »