Rankings Explanation - Cristina Foung

In the following few paragraphs, I will attempt to explain my rankings of high risk in the areas of environment, resource conflict, and pandemics, and how all three are interconnected.

The environment affects everyone and everything. Since the Industrial Revolution, human impacts on the environment have increased exponentially. For example, climate change is a threat to all actors, from human to state to system to global. Change in weather patterns and intensification of storms cause damage to homes and businesses and affects agriculture. Sea level rise threatens the very existence of small island states and coastal regions. Environmental degradation and changes can cause human health impacts, such as the spread of disease. As we (as the human race) overexploit our resources, conflict will arise. This resource conflict is and will continue to be exacerbated by climate change and its impacts on ecosystems.

It is interesting to note that few people have noted pandemics as a global security threat. I agree with Emeline Lemoine that pandemics are in fact a great risk for human health. As Emeline notes, HIV and AIDS are continuously destructive. Other illnesses are also risks. The reemergence of infectious diseases thought to be eradicated, such as tuberculosis, is a serious threat. Environmental changes can cause the spread of diseases such as malaria and cholera through contaminated water supplies. As temperatures rise and as certain areas become moister, mosquito borne illnesses will arise where they have not been seen before. However, currently the big name pandemic that everyone is talking about is bird flu. While I do not think that I will contract bird flu from the organic smoked chicken breast I ate yesterday, pandemics are real. And while the spread of avian flu has mostly been seen due to sick domesticated and farmed birds and human-to-human transmission appears to be rare, influenza viruses change. Beyond the potential for the development of new strains (and particularly more resistant, infectious strains), avian influenza is interesting given the system of globalization: in a study of influenza patterns, two researchers with Children's Hospital Boston and Harvard Medical School indicated that a 27% decrease in flight activity delayed the spread of flu viruses by two weeks; they estimate that given air travel reductions, an avian flu pandemic could be delayed by up to two months.

Resource conflict is widespread. The definition of the Global Security Manifesto includes “critical and scarce resources,” such as water, food, medicine, and oil. Water access has been an important issue throughout history. It is just as important today: Article 1; Article 2. Water in turn affects agriculture as well as human health. In many states, where water is an issue, access to medicine and health care is also an issue, giving rise to a double-edged sword. Without access to clean drinking water, illnesses can be contracted. Without access to medicine, illnesses cannot be alleviated. However, as noted by Joshua Rosenthal, resource conflict can be extended to include luxury goods, such as coffee and diamonds. Conflict and harm have been widespread due to such goods which can hardly be classified as necessities.

A hazardous environment is the greatest global security threat because it affects all aspects of human life. No network or system or state or human can be effective if the globe is unhealthy.

Posted by Cristina Foung on October 1, 2006 12:07 PM | Permalink

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